A mere two months ago that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
