Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
